PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
fnatic#37 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 8:13
ASTRAL#71 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic ban
71%64%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
73%50%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge fnatic +23%ASTRAL · 6 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
62%57%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +5%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
69%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +19%ASTRAL · 2 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
50%50%
fnatic · 6 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 4 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%46%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +4%ASTRAL · 9 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
71%43%
fnatic · 3 mapsedge fnatic +28%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
3. Banfnatic remove Dust2
4. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
5. Banfnatic remove Ancient
6. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
DeciderCache (69% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
fnatic 58%ASTRAL 42%
The model gave 58% on fnatic — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 65%
Series resultASTRAL 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1