PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#209 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Villainous · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Incognito · 0 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
60%50%
Villainous · 6 mapsedge Villainous +10%Incognito · 0 maps
MirageVillainous ban
38%40%
Villainous · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Incognito · 1 map
AncientVillainous ban
29%50%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Incognito +21%Incognito · 0 maps
DefaultIncognito ban
60%40%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +20%Incognito · 1 map
NukeIncognito pick
60%40%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +20%Incognito · 1 map
CacheIncognito ban
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Incognito · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanIncognito remove Cache
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickIncognito take Nuke
5. BanIncognito remove Default
6. BanVillainous remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed2:13
Villainous 53%Incognito 47%
The model gave 53% on Villainous — the map was taken by Incognito.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Villainous 44%Incognito 56%
The model gave 56% on Incognito — the map was taken by Villainous.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
Villainous 29%Incognito 71%
The model gave 71% on Incognito — the map was taken by Incognito.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 59%
Series resultIncognito 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3