PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
69%60%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +9%Incognito · 1 map
InfernoMarsborne pick
73%60%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Incognito · 1 map
Dust2Marsborne ban
55%50%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +5%Incognito · 0 maps
MirageIncognito ban
67%33%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +34%Incognito · 2 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
63%40%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Incognito · 1 map
AnubisIncognito ban
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Incognito · 0 maps
OverpassIncognito pick
50%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Incognito · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanIncognito remove Mirage
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickIncognito take Overpass
5. BanIncognito remove Anubis
6. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (69% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Marsborne 67%Incognito 33%
The model gave 67% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Marsborne 78%Incognito 22%
The model gave 78% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 69%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2