NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
55%72%
Just Players · 29 mapsedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 21 map
AncientAtreides pick
60%53%
Just Players · 21 mapedge Just Players +7%Atreides · 13 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
40%33%
Just Players · 21 mapedge Just Players +7%Atreides · 8 maps
NukeJust Players ban
47%50%
Just Players · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Atreides · 8 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
56%43%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge Just Players +13%Atreides · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%46%
Just Players · 5 mapsedge Just Players +10%Atreides · 9 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
50%61%
Just Players · 0 mapsedge Atreides +11%Atreides · 14 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Players remove Inferno
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickJust Players take Mirage
4. PickAtreides take Ancient
5. BanAtreides remove Overpass
6. BanJust Players remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (56% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Just Players 59%Atreides 41%
The model gave 59% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 52%
Series resultJust Players 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1