Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 13:7series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:7
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%57%
ENCE · 12 mapsedge KUUSAMO +13%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
AncientENCE ban
55%40%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +15%KUUSAMO · 1 map
NukeKUUSAMO ban
60%33%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge ENCE +27%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
InfernoENCE ban
43%40%
ENCE · 3 mapsnearly even +3%KUUSAMO · 1 map
AnubisENCE ban
67%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
OverpassKUUSAMO ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
CacheKUUSAMO ban
60%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge ENCE +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Inferno
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Nuke
3. BanENCE remove Anubis
4. BanKUUSAMO remove Cache
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanKUUSAMO remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (44% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
ENCE 53%KUUSAMO 47%
The model gave 53% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 65%
Series resultENCE 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1