ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#157 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAbyssal pick
55%50%
Abyssal · 7 mapsedge Abyssal +5%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
InfernoBGNS Orange ban
56%50%
Abyssal · 5 mapsedge Abyssal +6%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
NukeBGNS Orange pick
38%50%
Abyssal · 4 mapsedge BGNS Orange +12%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
Dust2BGNS Orange ban
57%50%
Abyssal · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +7%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
AncientAbyssal ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge BGNS Orange +10%BGNS Orange · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
2. BanBGNS Orange remove Dust2
3. PickAbyssal take Mirage
4. PickBGNS Orange take Nuke
5. BanBGNS Orange remove Inferno
6. BanAbyssal remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Abyssal 52%BGNS Orange 48%
The model gave 52% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Abyssal 58%BGNS Orange 42%
The model gave 58% on Abyssal — the map was taken by BGNS Orange.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Abyssal 38%BGNS Orange 62%
The model gave 63% on BGNS Orange — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 60%
Series resultAbyssal 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3