ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#100 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
47%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%Dark Moon · 2 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
56%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%Dark Moon · 0 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS pick
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Dark Moon · 2 maps
Dust2Dark Moon pick
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 10 mapsedge Dark Moon +10%Dark Moon · 1 map
CacheDark Moon ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Dark Moon · 0 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%Dark Moon · 0 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
38%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Dark Moon · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Mirage
4. PickDark Moon take Dust2
5. BanDark Moon remove Cache
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (47% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 37%Dark Moon 63%
The model gave 63% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 63%Dark Moon 37%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 71%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2