ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#189 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HAVU#116 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
40%69%
Privateer · 11 mapsedge HAVU +29%HAVU · 12 maps
Dust2HAVU ban
31%30%
Privateer · 9 mapsnearly even +1%HAVU · 6 maps
MiragePrivateer ban
33%50%
Privateer · 5 mapsedge HAVU +17%HAVU · 8 maps
AncientPrivateer ban
36%50%
Privateer · 7 mapsedge HAVU +14%HAVU · 4 maps
CacheHAVU ban
40%33%
Privateer · 1 mapedge Privateer +7%HAVU · 5 maps
InfernoHAVU pick
67%57%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +10%HAVU · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Privateer · 1 mapedge HAVU +10%HAVU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Mirage
2. BanHAVU remove Cache
3. PickPrivateer take Nuke
4. PickHAVU take Inferno
5. BanHAVU remove Dust2
6. BanPrivateer remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
Privateer 54%HAVU 46%
The model gave 54% on Privateer — the map was taken by HAVU.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Privateer 21%HAVU 79%
The model gave 79% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 60%
Series resultHAVU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2