ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A Great Chaos#206 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
43%50%
Permitta · 10 mapsedge A Great Chaos +7%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
AncientA Great Chaos ban
38%50%
Permitta · 9 mapsedge A Great Chaos +12%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
MirageA Great Chaos pick
55%60%
Permitta · 7 mapsedge A Great Chaos +5%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
67%60%
Permitta · 5 mapsedge Permitta +7%A Great Chaos · 1 map
CacheA Great Chaos ban
70%50%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +20%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
25%50%
Permitta · 4 mapsedge A Great Chaos +25%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
DefaultPermitta ban
33%50%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge A Great Chaos +17%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Cache
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
5. BanA Great Chaos remove Ancient
6. BanPermitta remove Default
DeciderAnubis (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Permitta 42%A Great Chaos 58%
The model gave 58% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by Permitta.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
Permitta 46%A Great Chaos 54%
The model gave 54% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 68%
Series resultPermitta 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2