ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
KUUSAMO#186 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
33%42%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsedge Misa +9%Misa · 29 maps
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
50%48%
KUUSAMO · 0 mapsnearly even +2%Misa · 21 map
MirageMisa ban
50%38%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsedge KUUSAMO +12%Misa · 17 maps
CacheKUUSAMO ban
40%37%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapnearly even +3%Misa · 15 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%47%
KUUSAMO · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%53%
KUUSAMO · 1 mapedge Misa +13%Misa · 11 maps
DefaultKUUSAMO pick
50%36%
KUUSAMO · 0 mapsedge KUUSAMO +14%Misa · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Mirage
3. PickKUUSAMO take Default
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanKUUSAMO remove Cache
DeciderInferno (40% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct22:18
KUUSAMO 56%Misa 44%
The model gave 56% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
KUUSAMO 50%Misa 50%
The model gave 50% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by KUUSAMO.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 55%
Series resultKUUSAMO 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2