ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Privateer#189 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BERG#210 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
38%33%
Privateer · 12 mapsedge Privateer +5%BERG · 8 maps
AncientBERG pick
36%42%
Privateer · 7 mapsedge BERG +6%BERG · 8 maps
MirageBERG ban
33%45%
Privateer · 5 mapsedge BERG +12%BERG · 7 maps
Dust2BERG ban
29%50%
Privateer · 10 mapsedge BERG +21%BERG · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%57%
Privateer · 2 mapsedge Privateer +10%BERG · 3 maps
AnubisPrivateer ban
50%38%
Privateer · 0 mapsedge Privateer +12%BERG · 4 maps
DefaultPrivateer ban
40%60%
Privateer · 1 mapedge BERG +20%BERG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
2. BanBERG remove Dust2
3. PickPrivateer take Nuke
4. PickBERG take Ancient
5. BanBERG remove Mirage
6. BanPrivateer remove Default
DeciderInferno (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed12:16
Privateer 58%BERG 42%
The model gave 58% on Privateer — the map was taken by BERG.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
Privateer 42%BERG 58%
The model gave 58% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoritePrivateer · 54%
Series resultBERG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2