ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KUUSAMO#186 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
60%57%
MOUZ NXT · 16 mapsnearly even +3%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
21%33%
MOUZ NXT · 15 mapsedge KUUSAMO +12%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
CacheKUUSAMO ban
53%50%
MOUZ NXT · 13 mapsnearly even +3%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
MirageKUUSAMO pick
29%50%
MOUZ NXT · 13 mapsedge KUUSAMO +21%KUUSAMO · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
44%50%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge KUUSAMO +6%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
DefaultKUUSAMO ban
67%50%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Default
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickKUUSAMO take Mirage
5. BanKUUSAMO remove Cache
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
MOUZ NXT 50%KUUSAMO 50%
The model gave 50% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
MOUZ NXT 63%KUUSAMO 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 53%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2