Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 13:9series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 13:9
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINQU ban
44%50%
ENCE · 12 mapsedge SINQU +6%SINQU · 0 maps
AncientSINQU ban
55%50%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%SINQU · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%60%
ENCE · 6 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU · 1 map
InfernoENCE ban
43%50%
ENCE · 3 mapsedge SINQU +7%SINQU · 0 maps
AnubisENCE ban
67%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%SINQU · 0 maps
OverpassSINQU ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU · 0 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
40%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Dust2
2. BanSINQU remove Ancient
3. BanENCE remove Inferno
4. BanSINQU remove Mirage
5. BanENCE remove Anubis
6. BanSINQU remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
ENCE 50%SINQU 50%
The model gave 50% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 53%
Series resultENCE 13:9
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1