Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Last Bullet#210 in the world · win 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BMZ#121 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BMZ pick
50%50%
Last Bullet · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BMZ · 2 maps
MirageLast Bullet pick
67%57%
Last Bullet · 2 mapsedge Last Bullet +10%BMZ · 3 maps
AncientLast Bullet ban
40%57%
Last Bullet · 1 mapedge BMZ +17%BMZ · 3 maps
DefaultBMZ ban
60%40%
Last Bullet · 1 mapedge Last Bullet +20%BMZ · 1 map
NukeBMZ ban
40%40%
Last Bullet · 1 mapnearly even +0%BMZ · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLast Bullet remove Ancient
2. BanBMZ remove Nuke
3. PickLast Bullet take Mirage
4. PickBMZ take Dust2
5. BanBMZ remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Last Bullet 31%BMZ 69%
The model gave 69% on BMZ — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Last Bullet 53%BMZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Last Bullet — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Model check result
Model favoriteBMZ · 68%
Series resultLast Bullet 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2