ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#192 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
regain#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientZomblers pick
67%67%
Zomblers · 2 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 5 maps
Dust2Zomblers ban
33%67%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge regain +34%regain · 2 maps
Infernoregain pick
50%63%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge regain +13%regain · 4 maps
Mirageregain ban
67%40%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +27%regain · 1 map
OverpassZomblers ban
33%40%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge regain +7%regain · 1 map
Defaultregain ban
60%50%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%regain · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Dust2
2. Banregain remove Mirage
3. PickZomblers take Ancient
4. Pickregain take Inferno
5. Banregain remove Default
6. BanZomblers remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Zomblers 73%regain 27%
The model gave 73% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Zomblers 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 52%
Series resultZomblers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2