BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2INOX Division ban
60%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge SPARTA +10%INOX Division · 2 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge INOX Division +10%INOX Division · 2 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
60%67%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge INOX Division +7%INOX Division · 2 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 0 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge INOX Division +10%INOX Division · 0 maps
OverpassSPARTA pick
60%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge SPARTA +10%INOX Division · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickSPARTA take Overpass
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Dust2
6. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed22:20
SPARTA 40%INOX Division 60%
The model gave 60% on INOX Division — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
SPARTA 63%INOX Division 37%
The model gave 63% on SPARTA — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
SPARTA 60%INOX Division 40%
The model gave 60% on SPARTA — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 58%
Series resultINOX Division 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3