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Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Chaosloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Just Swing#173 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChaos ban
50%57%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +7%Just Swing · 3 maps
DefaultChaos pick
50%33%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Chaos +17%Just Swing · 2 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%40%
Chaos · 1 mapnearly even +0%Just Swing · 1 map
InfernoChaos ban
50%50%
Chaos · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 2 maps
AncientJust Swing pick
50%60%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 1 map
AnubisJust Swing ban
50%60%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChaos remove Nuke
2. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
3. PickChaos take Default
4. PickJust Swing take Ancient
5. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
6. BanChaos remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Chaos 40%Just Swing 60%
The model gave 60% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Chaos 53%Just Swing 47%
The model gave 53% on Chaos — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 58%
Series resultJust Swing 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2