Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
MTX#179 in the world · loss 4:13series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 4:13
ROUNDS#214 in the world · win 13:4The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMTX ban
40%50%
MTX · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
MTX · 1 mapedge MTX +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMTX remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
MTX 60%ROUNDS 40%
The model gave 60% on MTX — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteMTX · 60%
Series resultROUNDS 4:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1