NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY pick
50%43%
PsychoFace · 0 mapsedge PsychoFace +7%UNiTY · 3 maps
Dust2PsychoFace pick
50%50%
PsychoFace · 0 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 2 maps
MirageUNiTY ban
50%50%
PsychoFace · 0 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 2 maps
DefaultUNiTY ban
60%50%
PsychoFace · 1 mapedge PsychoFace +10%UNiTY · 0 maps
InfernoPsychoFace ban
50%60%
PsychoFace · 0 mapsedge UNiTY +10%UNiTY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPsychoFace remove Inferno
2. BanUNiTY remove Default
3. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
4. PickUNiTY take Ancient
5. BanUNiTY remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct14:16
PsychoFace 47%UNiTY 53%
The model gave 53% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
PsychoFace 53%UNiTY 47%
The model gave 53% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
PsychoFace 60%UNiTY 40%
The model gave 60% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 68%
Series resultUNiTY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3