WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · win 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TDK#86 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
54%82%
WW · 9 mapsedge TDK +28%TDK · 18 maps
MirageWW pick
67%53%
WW · 8 mapsedge WW +14%TDK · 13 maps
OverpassTDK pick
40%79%
WW · 1 mapedge TDK +39%TDK · 15 maps
AncientWW ban
50%63%
WW · 0 mapsedge TDK +13%TDK · 12 maps
AnubisTDK ban
43%50%
WW · 3 mapsedge TDK +7%TDK · 6 maps
InfernoTDK ban
50%45%
WW · 2 mapsedge WW +5%TDK · 7 maps
DefaultWW ban
50%67%
WW · 0 mapsedge TDK +17%TDK · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanTDK remove Inferno
3. PickWW take Mirage
4. PickTDK take Overpass
5. BanTDK remove Anubis
6. BanWW remove Default
DeciderDust2 (54% / 82%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
WW 67%TDK 33%
The model gave 67% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
WW 40%TDK 60%
The model gave 60% on TDK — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 69%
Series resultWW 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2