Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 10:13
Last Bullet#210 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
Chaos · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Last Bullet · 2 maps
MirageChaos ban
50%67%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Last Bullet +17%Last Bullet · 2 maps
AncientLast Bullet ban
50%40%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Chaos +10%Last Bullet · 1 map
DefaultChaos ban
50%60%
Chaos · 0 mapsedge Last Bullet +10%Last Bullet · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChaos remove Mirage
2. BanLast Bullet remove Ancient
3. BanChaos remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Chaos 50%Last Bullet 50%
The model gave 50% on Chaos — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Model check result
Model favoriteLast Bullet · 56%
Series resultLast Bullet 10:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1