BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 1:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2AM ban
50%40%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +10%megoshort · 1 map
Miragemegoshort ban
50%40%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +10%megoshort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Dust2
2. Banmegoshort remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
AM 50%megoshort 50%
The model gave 50% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 75%
Series resultAM 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1