ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fake do Biru pick
50%67%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Fake do Biru +17%Fake do Biru · 2 maps
AnubisFake do Biru ban
50%60%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Fake do Biru +10%Fake do Biru · 1 map
InfernoFake do Biru ban
67%40%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Imperial +27%Fake do Biru · 1 map
NukeImperial pick
40%60%
Imperial · 1 mapedge Fake do Biru +20%Fake do Biru · 1 map
MirageImperial ban
60%50%
Imperial · 1 mapedge Imperial +10%Fake do Biru · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Mirage
2. BanFake do Biru remove Inferno
3. PickImperial take Nuke
4. PickFake do Biru take Dust2
5. BanFake do Biru remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Imperial 31%Fake do Biru 69%
The model gave 69% on Fake do Biru — the map was taken by Imperial.
Mirageprediction correct16:13
Imperial 63%Fake do Biru 37%
The model gave 63% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 59%
Series resultImperial 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2