Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
OverKnight#262 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shimmer#226 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOverKnight pick
40%40%
OverKnight · 1 mapnearly even +0%Shimmer · 1 map
DefaultOverKnight ban
40%50%
OverKnight · 1 mapedge Shimmer +10%Shimmer · 0 maps
MirageShimmer ban
50%40%
OverKnight · 0 mapsedge OverKnight +10%Shimmer · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOverKnight remove Default
2. BanShimmer remove Mirage
3. PickOverKnight take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
OverKnight 63%Shimmer 37%
The model gave 63% on OverKnight — the map was taken by Shimmer.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
OverKnight 47%Shimmer 53%
The model gave 53% on Shimmer — the map was taken by Shimmer.
Model check result
Model favoriteShimmer · 51%
Series resultShimmer 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2