Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#71 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGentle Mates ban
40%67%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +27%ASTRAL · 2 maps
NukeASTRAL pick
40%60%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +20%ASTRAL · 1 map
AncientGentle Mates pick
50%60%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
InfernoASTRAL ban
60%50%
Gentle Mates · 1 mapedge Gentle Mates +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickGentle Mates take Ancient
4. PickASTRAL take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
Gentle Mates 37%ASTRAL 63%
The model gave 63% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Gentle Mates 63%ASTRAL 37%
The model gave 63% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 73%
Series resultGentle Mates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2