Tipsport Conquest of Prague 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
50%67%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 5 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
50%57%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Walczaki · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Walczaki · 2 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%67%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 2 maps
Dust2KOLESIE pick
40%50%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 0 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%40%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%Walczaki · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
3. PickKOLESIE take Dust2
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
6. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct12:16
KOLESIE 40%Walczaki 60%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
KOLESIE 53%Walczaki 47%
The model gave 53% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
KOLESIE 50%Walczaki 50%
The model gave 50% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 54%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3