Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Falcons Force#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
Not enough maps played over 3 months to build a veto prediction.
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Sharks 53%Falcons Force 47%
The model gave 53% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Sharks 47%Falcons Force 53%
The model gave 53% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 63%
Series resultSharks 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2