ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultChinggis Warriors pick
60%60%
TYLOO · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
NukeTYLOO pick
60%40%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +20%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
InfernoTYLOO ban
50%60%
TYLOO · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
MirageChinggis Warriors ban
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%Chinggis Warriors · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Inferno
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Mirage
3. PickTYLOO take Nuke
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
TYLOO 47%Chinggis Warriors 53%
The model gave 53% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
TYLOO 43%Chinggis Warriors 57%
The model gave 57% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
TYLOO 69%Chinggis Warriors 31%
The model gave 69% on TYLOO — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 81%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3