Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemiga pick
50%40%
Nemiga · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Eternal Fire · 1 map
MirageNemiga ban
50%40%
Nemiga · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Eternal Fire · 1 map
OverpassEternal Fire ban
67%50%
Nemiga · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
AnubisEternal Fire pick
60%50%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +10%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
50%60%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Eternal Fire · 1 map
NukeEternal Fire ban
60%50%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +10%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Dust2
2. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
3. PickNemiga take Ancient
4. PickEternal Fire take Anubis
5. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
6. BanNemiga remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Nemiga 63%Eternal Fire 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Nemiga 37%Eternal Fire 63%
The model gave 63% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 61%
Series resultEternal Fire 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2