ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#152 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultNEXVOID ban
50%67%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge The Huns +17%The Huns · 2 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
67%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%The Huns · 0 maps
AncientNEXVOID pick
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%The Huns · 0 maps
Dust2The Huns ban
60%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +10%The Huns · 0 maps
OverpassThe Huns pick
40%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Default
2. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
3. PickNEXVOID take Ancient
4. PickThe Huns take Overpass
5. BanThe Huns remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
NEXVOID 63%The Huns 37%
The model gave 63% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
NEXVOID 47%The Huns 53%
The model gave 53% on The Huns — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 54%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2