NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
62%42%
SPARTA · 30 mapsedge SPARTA +20%Just Players · 20 maps
MirageJust Players pick
55%53%
SPARTA · 18 mapsnearly even +2%Just Players · 28 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
36%57%
SPARTA · 18 mapsedge Just Players +21%Just Players · 19 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
45%47%
SPARTA · 16 mapsnearly even -2%Just Players · 11 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
47%50%
SPARTA · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Just Players · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%56%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge Just Players +16%Just Players · 5 maps
CacheJust Players ban
44%29%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge SPARTA +15%Just Players · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanJust Players remove Inferno
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Cache
6. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (40% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
SPARTA 28%Just Players 72%
The model gave 72% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
SPARTA 72%Just Players 28%
The model gave 72% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
SPARTA 51%Just Players 49%
The model gave 51% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 52%
Series resultJust Players 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3