Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillwin 2:1series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Johnny Speeds#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
Not enough maps played over 3 months to build a veto prediction.
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
illwill 47%Johnny Speeds 53%
The model gave 53% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
illwill 53%Johnny Speeds 47%
The model gave 53% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
illwill 50%Johnny Speeds 50%
The model gave 50% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 79%
Series resultillwill 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3