Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 16:12series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 16:12
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
40%50%
ENCE · 11 mapsedge BOJONG +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
AncientENCE ban
55%50%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +5%BOJONG · 0 maps
NukeBOJONG ban
60%50%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge ENCE +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
InfernoENCE ban
43%50%
ENCE · 3 mapsedge BOJONG +7%BOJONG · 0 maps
AnubisBOJONG ban
67%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsedge ENCE +17%BOJONG · 0 maps
OverpassBOJONG ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BOJONG · 0 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
40%50%
ENCE · 1 mapedge BOJONG +10%BOJONG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Dust2
2. BanBOJONG remove Anubis
3. BanENCE remove Inferno
4. BanBOJONG remove Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanBOJONG remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:12
ENCE 40%BOJONG 60%
The model gave 60% on BOJONG — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 58%
Series resultENCE 16:12
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1