NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
67%72%
Butterfly · 5 mapsedge Atreides +5%Atreides · 21 map
AncientButterfly pick
71%53%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +18%Atreides · 13 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
33%61%
Butterfly · 2 mapsedge Atreides +28%Atreides · 14 maps
NukeAtreides ban
63%50%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Atreides · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%43%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Atreides · 10 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
60%33%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +27%Atreides · 8 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%45%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Atreides +5%Atreides · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Nuke
6. BanButterfly remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Butterfly 50%Atreides 50%
The model gave 50% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 53%
Series resultButterfly 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1