StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
56%73%
Fluxo · 14 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Bounty Hunters · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%50%
Fluxo · 11 mapsedge Fluxo +10%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
MirageBounty Hunters pick
70%57%
Fluxo · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +13%Bounty Hunters · 17 maps
AncientFluxo ban
33%48%
Fluxo · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +15%Bounty Hunters · 17 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
50%45%
Fluxo · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +5%Bounty Hunters · 7 maps
CacheFluxo ban
50%56%
Fluxo · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Bounty Hunters · 5 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
40%50%
Fluxo · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickBounty Hunters take Mirage
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. BanFluxo remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Fluxo 42%Bounty Hunters 58%
The model gave 58% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
Fluxo 63%Bounty Hunters 37%
The model gave 63% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Fluxo 32%Bounty Hunters 68%
The model gave 68% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 60%
Series resultFluxo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3