FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#17 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTYLOO pick
56%67%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsedge TYLOO +11%TYLOO · 8 maps
InfernoTYLOO ban
22%36%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsedge TYLOO +14%TYLOO · 7 maps
AncientPARIVISION pick
67%71%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsnearly even -4%TYLOO · 3 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
55%50%
PARIVISION · 7 mapsedge PARIVISION +5%TYLOO · 0 maps
AnubisPARIVISION ban
50%50%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsnearly even +0%TYLOO · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
29%60%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +31%TYLOO · 1 map
NukePARIVISION ban
50%43%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge PARIVISION +7%TYLOO · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. PickTYLOO take Mirage
5. BanTYLOO remove Inferno
6. BanPARIVISION remove Anubis
DeciderCache (29% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
PARIVISION 31%TYLOO 69%
The model gave 69% on TYLOO — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
PARIVISION 47%TYLOO 53%
The model gave 53% on TYLOO — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 56%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2