FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#12 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
36%58%
G2 · 7 mapsedge Astralis +22%Astralis · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%22%
G2 · 8 mapsedge G2 +11%Astralis · 5 maps
InfernoG2 pick
77%50%
G2 · 9 mapsedge G2 +27%Astralis · 4 maps
MirageAstralis ban
67%50%
G2 · 8 mapsedge G2 +17%Astralis · 2 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
40%50%
G2 · 6 mapsedge Astralis +10%Astralis · 0 maps
CacheG2 ban
50%63%
G2 · 2 mapsedge Astralis +13%Astralis · 4 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%44%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +6%Astralis · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickG2 take Inferno
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Mirage
6. BanG2 remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (33% / 22%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
G2 27%Astralis 73%
The model gave 73% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Mirageprediction correct19:17
G2 69%Astralis 31%
The model gave 69% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
G2 77%Astralis 23%
The model gave 77% on G2 — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 74%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3