FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FaZe#11 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
59%50%
magic · 13 mapsedge magic +9%FaZe · 8 maps
CacheFaZe pick
70%73%
magic · 6 mapsnearly even -3%FaZe · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
magic · 6 mapsedge FaZe +10%FaZe · 6 maps
Dust2FaZe ban
40%38%
magic · 6 mapsnearly even +2%FaZe · 4 maps
Anubismagic ban
50%43%
magic · 4 mapsedge magic +7%FaZe · 3 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%63%
magic · 0 mapsedge FaZe +13%FaZe · 4 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
60%50%
magic · 1 mapedge magic +10%FaZe · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanFaZe remove Inferno
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickFaZe take Cache
5. BanFaZe remove Dust2
6. Banmagic remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
magic 62%FaZe 38%
The model gave 62% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
magic 50%FaZe 50%
The model gave 50% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Cacheprediction missed19:16
magic 47%FaZe 53%
The model gave 53% on FaZe — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 52%
Series resultmagic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3