FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#8 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance#50 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAlliance pick
55%69%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge Alliance +14%Alliance · 9 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
67%79%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Alliance +12%Alliance · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%50%
Legacy · 10 mapsedge Alliance +7%Alliance · 4 maps
NukeLegacy ban
50%64%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Alliance +14%Alliance · 7 maps
MirageAlliance ban
60%50%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge Legacy +10%Alliance · 0 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%43%
Legacy · 0 mapsedge Legacy +7%Alliance · 3 maps
OverpassAlliance ban
40%33%
Legacy · 1 mapedge Legacy +7%Alliance · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. PickAlliance take Ancient
5. BanAlliance remove Overpass
6. BanLegacy remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Legacy 33%Alliance 67%
The model gave 67% on Alliance — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Legacy 46%Alliance 54%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 83%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2