FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#12 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5star#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
57%25%
Astralis · 10 mapsedge Astralis +32%5star · 12 maps
Nuke5star pick
44%59%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge 5star +15%5star · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%53%
Astralis · 5 mapsnearly even +3%5star · 11 maps
Cache5star ban
63%55%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge Astralis +8%5star · 7 maps
MirageAstralis ban
43%67%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge 5star +24%5star · 5 maps
Dust25star ban
22%50%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge 5star +28%5star · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
40%71%
Astralis · 1 mapedge 5star +31%5star · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. Pick5star take Nuke
5. Ban5star remove Cache
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (56% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Astralis 49%5star 51%
The model gave 51% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Astralis 82%5star 18%
The model gave 82% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
Astralis 58%5star 42%
The model gave 58% on Astralis — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 89%
Series result5star 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3