FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#8 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FURIA#5 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
47%57%
Legacy · 11 mapsedge FURIA +10%FURIA · 10 maps
AncientFURIA ban
55%60%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge FURIA +5%FURIA · 6 maps
MirageFURIA pick
56%67%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge FURIA +11%FURIA · 8 maps
NukeLegacy ban
50%64%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge FURIA +14%FURIA · 7 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
67%56%
Legacy · 5 mapsedge Legacy +11%FURIA · 5 maps
CacheFURIA ban
50%40%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge Legacy +10%FURIA · 6 maps
OverpassLegacy ban
40%71%
Legacy · 1 mapedge FURIA +31%FURIA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Nuke
2. BanFURIA remove Ancient
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. PickFURIA take Mirage
5. BanFURIA remove Cache
6. BanLegacy remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (47% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Legacy 36%FURIA 64%
The model gave 64% on FURIA — the map was taken by Legacy.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Legacy 47%FURIA 53%
The model gave 53% on FURIA — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 50%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2