FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · win 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5star#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
43%24%
G2 · 10 mapsedge G2 +19%5star · 13 maps
InfernoG2 pick
71%56%
G2 · 10 mapsedge G2 +15%5star · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
69%67%
G2 · 9 mapsnearly even +2%5star · 5 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%59%
G2 · 0 mapsedge 5star +9%5star · 13 maps
CacheG2 ban
43%58%
G2 · 3 mapsedge 5star +15%5star · 8 maps
Anubis5star pick
40%71%
G2 · 6 mapsedge 5star +31%5star · 3 maps
Dust25star ban
31%50%
G2 · 9 mapsedge 5star +19%5star · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickG2 take Inferno
4. Pick5star take Anubis
5. Ban5star remove Ancient
6. BanG2 remove Cache
DeciderMirage (69% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
G2 63%5star 37%
The model gave 63% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
G2 73%5star 27%
The model gave 73% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 93%
Series resultG2 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2