Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
InControl#154 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeIncognito ban
50%67%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge InControl +17%InControl · 2 maps
DefaultInControl ban
60%50%
Incognito · 1 mapedge Incognito +10%InControl · 0 maps
Dust2Incognito pick
50%40%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%InControl · 1 map
InfernoInControl ban
50%40%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%InControl · 1 map
MirageInControl pick
50%60%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge InControl +10%InControl · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIncognito remove Nuke
2. BanInControl remove Default
3. PickIncognito take Dust2
4. PickInControl take Mirage
5. BanInControl remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Incognito 63%InControl 37%
The model gave 63% on Incognito — the map was taken by InControl.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Incognito 37%InControl 63%
The model gave 63% on InControl — the map was taken by InControl.
Model check result
Model favoriteInControl · 65%
Series resultInControl 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2