Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aether#215 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFarmVille ban
60%67%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge Aether +7%Aether · 2 maps
DefaultAether ban
67%40%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +27%Aether · 1 map
Dust2FarmVille pick
60%60%
FarmVille · 1 mapnearly even +0%Aether · 1 map
MirageAether pick
60%60%
FarmVille · 1 mapnearly even +0%Aether · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
2. BanAether remove Default
3. PickFarmVille take Dust2
4. PickAether take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
FarmVille 53%Aether 47%
The model gave 53% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Aether.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
FarmVille 40%Aether 60%
The model gave 60% on Aether — the map was taken by Aether.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 55%
Series resultAether 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2