Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UA#33 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FOKUS#40 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FOKUS pick
50%50%
Passion UA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 0 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
67%50%
Passion UA · 2 mapsedge Passion UA +17%FOKUS · 0 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
50%50%
Passion UA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FOKUS · 0 maps
NukePassion UA ban
40%50%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge FOKUS +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
OverpassPassion UA pick
60%50%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge Passion UA +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPassion UA remove Nuke
2. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
3. PickPassion UA take Overpass
4. PickFOKUS take Dust2
5. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Passion UA 64%FOKUS 36%
The model gave 64% on Passion UA — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Passion UA 53%FOKUS 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Passion UA 50%FOKUS 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 52%
Series resultFOKUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3