BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AaB#69 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNC#147 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAaB pick
67%60%
AaB · 2 mapsedge AaB +7%TNC · 1 map
AnubisTNC pick
50%50%
AaB · 2 mapsnearly even +0%TNC · 0 maps
Dust2TNC ban
50%40%
AaB · 0 mapsedge AaB +10%TNC · 1 map
NukeAaB ban
50%40%
AaB · 0 mapsedge AaB +10%TNC · 1 map
OverpassTNC ban
40%50%
AaB · 1 mapedge TNC +10%TNC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAaB remove Nuke
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickAaB take Ancient
4. PickTNC take Anubis
5. BanTNC remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
AaB 57%TNC 43%
The model gave 57% on AaB — the map was taken by TNC.
Overpassprediction missed13:10
AaB 43%TNC 57%
The model gave 57% on TNC — the map was taken by AaB.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
AaB 57%TNC 43%
The model gave 57% on AaB — the map was taken by AaB.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 69%
Series resultAaB 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3