Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tricked#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernomagic ban
50%40%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +10%Tricked · 1 map
NukeTricked ban
50%40%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +10%Tricked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Inferno
2. BanTricked remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
magic 53%Tricked 47%
The model gave 53% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Overpassprediction missed13:6
magic 47%Tricked 53%
The model gave 53% on Tricked — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteTricked · 55%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2