ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDing Cuts pick
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Ding Cuts · 2 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
40%60%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Ding Cuts +20%Ding Cuts · 1 map
NukeAbyssal pick
60%40%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +20%Ding Cuts · 1 map
AnubisDing Cuts ban
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Ding Cuts +10%Ding Cuts · 0 maps
OverpassDing Cuts ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%Ding Cuts · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
2. BanDing Cuts remove Anubis
3. PickAbyssal take Nuke
4. PickDing Cuts take Mirage
5. BanDing Cuts remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Abyssal 57%Ding Cuts 43%
The model gave 57% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Abyssal 33%Ding Cuts 67%
The model gave 67% on Ding Cuts — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 65%
Series resultAbyssal 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2