ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:1
FURYwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultFURY pick
40%40%
Rooster · 1 mapnearly even +0%FURY · 1 map
Dust2FURY ban
50%40%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge Rooster +10%FURY · 1 map
InfernoRooster ban
50%60%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge FURY +10%FURY · 1 map
NukeRooster pick
50%60%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge FURY +10%FURY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Inferno
2. BanFURY remove Dust2
3. PickRooster take Nuke
4. PickFURY take Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Rooster 50%FURY 50%
The model gave 50% on Rooster — the map was taken by FURY.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 63%
Series resultFURY 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1