ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons ban
50%50%
regain · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Dust2Wanted Goons pick
60%60%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Mirageregain ban
40%40%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Defaultregain pick
50%40%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
InfernoWanted Goons ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%60%
regain · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +10%Wanted Goons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. Pickregain take Default
4. PickWanted Goons take Dust2
5. BanWanted Goons remove Ancient
6. Banregain remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
regain 57%Wanted Goons 43%
The model gave 57% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
regain 53%Wanted Goons 47%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 58%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2